Looking at the year on year change chart the improvement since October is evident, and confirms the impression we have been getting from the industrial output data. My feeling is that the future trend here depends on what happens next in Germany.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Hungary External Trade January 2008
Hungary had a trade deficit of EUR 70.5 million in January 2008, according to first estimate figures released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on Friday. The figure compares with a deficit of EUR 219.3 million in January 2007. Exports in January 2008 reached EUR 5,930 m, up 16.4% year on January 2007, while imports were running at EUR 6,000 m, 12.9% up on January 2007. (Detailed trade data will be available on 4 April).
Looking at the year on year change chart the improvement since October is evident, and confirms the impression we have been getting from the industrial output data. My feeling is that the future trend here depends on what happens next in Germany.
Looking at the year on year change chart the improvement since October is evident, and confirms the impression we have been getting from the industrial output data. My feeling is that the future trend here depends on what happens next in Germany.
Hungary Industrial Output January 2008
Hungary's industrial output grew by 6.6% y-o-y in January according to preliminary data from the statistics office. The growth rate was higher than the market consensus (5.8%) and surpassed December 5.3% data. Working day adjusted figures show a 1.3% m-o-m and 6.6% y-o-y rise.
These numbers are clearly better than expected, and a very slight silver lining on what is likely to be a very difficult day. On the other hand if we look at the annual growth rate chart we will see that the increase, while better than November and December, is still down on the rates of increase being achieved in earlier months.
However if we look at the seasonally and working day adjusted index levels we will see that November and December were indeed untypical months, and that to some extent the trend has now been recovered.(the January data is my own calculation, since KSH haven't yet released details, but a 1.3% increase over December doesn't need a mathematical genius to work out, although do remember these are all provisional data and industrial production is notoriously liable to revision as the months pass).
Untypical months then - or where they? Maybe it is worth thinking about the level of interlocking between the German and Hungarian economies as far as industrial output goes.
The strategic importance of the level of German economic activity for Hungarian exports should be evident from the chart I produce below which I have prepared from KSH data. What is not clear to me is the extent to which these products which go to Germany are subsequently processed for re-export (the Bazaar Economy hypothesis of Hans Werner Sinn).
Now what we do know is that German export activity has been slowing in recent months (the German economy due to its comparatively older aggregate population age is now an export driven economy in the way Hungary is about to become).
But we also know that things in January and especially February looked a little brighter in Germany (see this recent post on my Germany blog). It is important to note that "a little brighter" here really does mean a little brighter, since we should expect no dramatic turnaround in Germany, but could it be that Hungary is getting some of the uplift from this slight brightening. I certainly think it is an interesting hypothesis to entertain, and if this is the case, and if too the German economy now continues its way on its own version of Redetzky's downward march, then we cannot expect this recent recovery in Hungarian industrial activity to be anything other than temporary.
These numbers are clearly better than expected, and a very slight silver lining on what is likely to be a very difficult day. On the other hand if we look at the annual growth rate chart we will see that the increase, while better than November and December, is still down on the rates of increase being achieved in earlier months.
However if we look at the seasonally and working day adjusted index levels we will see that November and December were indeed untypical months, and that to some extent the trend has now been recovered.(the January data is my own calculation, since KSH haven't yet released details, but a 1.3% increase over December doesn't need a mathematical genius to work out, although do remember these are all provisional data and industrial production is notoriously liable to revision as the months pass).
Untypical months then - or where they? Maybe it is worth thinking about the level of interlocking between the German and Hungarian economies as far as industrial output goes.
The strategic importance of the level of German economic activity for Hungarian exports should be evident from the chart I produce below which I have prepared from KSH data. What is not clear to me is the extent to which these products which go to Germany are subsequently processed for re-export (the Bazaar Economy hypothesis of Hans Werner Sinn).
Now what we do know is that German export activity has been slowing in recent months (the German economy due to its comparatively older aggregate population age is now an export driven economy in the way Hungary is about to become).
But we also know that things in January and especially February looked a little brighter in Germany (see this recent post on my Germany blog). It is important to note that "a little brighter" here really does mean a little brighter, since we should expect no dramatic turnaround in Germany, but could it be that Hungary is getting some of the uplift from this slight brightening. I certainly think it is an interesting hypothesis to entertain, and if this is the case, and if too the German economy now continues its way on its own version of Redetzky's downward march, then we cannot expect this recent recovery in Hungarian industrial activity to be anything other than temporary.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Hungary International Trade December 2007
Hungary's trade deficit was 170.2 million euro in December, according to revised figures released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on Wednesday. This figure was revised upward from EUR 148.1 m in the preliminary release. The statistics office has also modified data from a number of previous months (largely in the first half of the year), and the result that the final 2007 deficit is EUR 136 m less than the preliminary data. Along the revision imports came in EUR 8.8 m lower and exports EUR 13.3 m higher than first reading data.
The full-year trade deficit was EUR 307.6 m, while the preliminary balance showed EUR -443.5 m. This was a significant improvement on the 2006 deficit of EUR 2,379.1 m.
The EUR 170.2 m December deficit compares with a deficit of EUR 127.9 m in the same month of 2006. Follwing the revision there are now six months in 2007 where there was a goods trade surplus. Before this year Hungary had not produce trade surplus in a single month since 1999.
Exports grew by EUR 5,223.6 m or 6.4% year on year in December (revised down from a preliminary estimate of 6.7%) which compared with a 8.1% expansion in Nov and +15.9% in Dec 06.
Imports were up 7.1% or EUR 5,394 m (revised down from a preliminary estimate of6.9%), which compared with a 5.5% increase in Nov and +15.3% yr/yr in Dec 06. The gap between export and import growth was -0.7 ppt, revised from the preliminarry -0.2 ppt.
Exports in 2007 expanded by 16.2% to EUR 68,461 m and imports reached EUR 68,769 m, up 12.2% from 2006.
The full-year trade deficit was EUR 307.6 m, while the preliminary balance showed EUR -443.5 m. This was a significant improvement on the 2006 deficit of EUR 2,379.1 m.
The EUR 170.2 m December deficit compares with a deficit of EUR 127.9 m in the same month of 2006. Follwing the revision there are now six months in 2007 where there was a goods trade surplus. Before this year Hungary had not produce trade surplus in a single month since 1999.
Exports grew by EUR 5,223.6 m or 6.4% year on year in December (revised down from a preliminary estimate of 6.7%) which compared with a 8.1% expansion in Nov and +15.9% in Dec 06.
Imports were up 7.1% or EUR 5,394 m (revised down from a preliminary estimate of6.9%), which compared with a 5.5% increase in Nov and +15.3% yr/yr in Dec 06. The gap between export and import growth was -0.7 ppt, revised from the preliminarry -0.2 ppt.
Exports in 2007 expanded by 16.2% to EUR 68,461 m and imports reached EUR 68,769 m, up 12.2% from 2006.
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