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Friday, December 07, 2007

Hungary Trade Balance October 2007

Well, not all the news is bad all of the time, since Hungary posted a trade surplus of EUR 41.6 million in October, reducing the cumulative deficit for 2007 to EUR 362 m at the end of the tenth month, according to preliminary figures released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) today.

October is the third month this year for which Hungary has posted a trade surplus (EUR 12 m in March and EUR 122.8 m in September). Still not everything about the numbers was good, since this does mark a step back from last months surplus. On the other hand these are still provisional numbers, but they do fit in with the falling back in industrial output in October.

The EUR 41.6 m October with a deficit of EUR 144.3 m in October last year, so the line is very much up, but as we shall see when we come to look at the GDP numbers, the export balance is the one leg Hungarian growth will have to stand on in the next few years, and the country is going to need more than this, since both domestic demand and government spending are going to be trending firmly down (there is going to have to be a hell of a lot more wage deflation in the pipeline yet awhile, if the forint can't be steered down due to the problem of the swiss mortgages.

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