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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Hungary Construction Output October 2007

Well Hungary's agony continues, and unfortunately it is far from over yet. The volume of construction industry output in Hungary grew by 3% month-on-month in October, according to data released today by the KSH (the Central Statistics Office). As Portfolio Hungary point out - trying to put a brave face on this - this is a faster rate than anything we have seen in any of the last 5 months, reported today. This slight acceleration alleviated the impact of a major year-on-year slump despite the high 2007 base.

In October 2007 the volume of the construction activity decreased in Hungary by 20.1%according to unadjusted indices and by 21% according to data adjusted for working days when compared with October 2006.

In the first ten months of 2007 output was 11.5% below the level of the same period in 2006. In comparison with September production increased by 3%, according to indices adjusted seasonally and by working days. The output of complete constructions and civil engineering decreased 26.5%, compared to October 2006, and was in January-October 16.6% lower than in the same period of 2006.

The production of building installations decreased in October by 5.8%, and that of building completion was down by 12.6%. According to unadjusted indices the construction of buildings fell by 19.5% and that of civil engineering was by 20.9% lower than in October 2006. From the beginning of 2007, construction of buildings went down by 8.1% while that of civil engineering was down by 15.7% when compared with the same period of the previous year. According to data adjusted seasonally and for working days, construction of buildings grew by 4.1% and that of civil engineering increased by 0.7%, in comparison with the previous month.

The stock of orders at the end of October was 34.5% below the level for the same month in 2006. Within this group, the stock of orders for building construction decreased by 3.1% while that for civil engineering was down by 51.9%. The volume of new orders was up by 44.3%% when compared with October 2006. Within this the new contracts for buildings increased by 46.7%, and those for civil engineering rose by 41.8%. The growth – besides the low base of the previous year – is due to contracts signed for commercial and industrial buildings as well as for two stations of the new underground line. In the first ten months the volume of new orders was by 14% lower than in the same months of the previous year.

As even the ever optimistic Portfolio Hungary observes:

However, CSO noted that the promising figures are mostly due to the low statistical base as well as the contracts for two subway stations as part of Budapest's Metro 4 project, in addition to commercial and industrial buildings. Overall, contracts fell 14% in the first 10 months of the year compared with the corresponding months of 2006.

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