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Thursday, December 06, 2007

Hungary Industrial Output October 2007

Following four months of continuing growth, Hungary's industrial output dropped by 0.9% month on month in October, according to preliminary figures, adjusted seasonally and by working days, released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH).

Despite the drop Hungary's industrial output grew 8.5% year on year. As Portfolio Hungary point out it would not be wise to jump to too many conclusions about the significance of this just yet, not least since these are only preliminary figures. Also, the production index of the sector can produce rather spectacular rises and falls due to strong seasonal fluctuations in output at any particular enterprises. Again the base effect has also played a part in the downturn (since as we can see, in August performance in industry was strong). We should also take into account that there have been several long weekends and “working Saturdays", which may create uncertainties in seasonal adjustment.

On the other hand, the deceleration may also have deeper causes, since a drop in domestic output dynamics is a natural consequence of any downturn in the European Union, and this downturn is undoubtedly materialising.

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