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Friday, January 25, 2008

Hungary Retail Sales November 2007

While the Hungarian government - according to Portfolio Hungary - was busy trying to refute a statement attributed to Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány by both the Associated Press and Neue Züricher Zeitung, suggesting the PM expected GDP growth to drop to around 1% in 2008, KSH was quitely publishing yet another piece of evidence not only that he might have done well to say what is being clained he didn't, but that in fact he could quite reasonably have suggested the number might be significantly less (ie that any forecast at this point needs to be hedged by the recognition of considerable downside risk). The data in question which were quitely coming out of Portfolio Hungary related of course to retail sales.

Hungarian retail sales dropped by 0.4% month on month in November, double the rate in the previous month (-0.2%), according to data adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects published by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) this morning. There has not been a single month to date in 2007 when the KSH did not report a m/m decline.

Here are the charts for the index itself and for the monthly y-o-y change. I think - in conjunction with what you can find in the other posts on this blog - that they speak for themselves - and in a pretty eloquent way.

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