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Monday, July 02, 2007

Industrial Production Continues To Rise

Portfolio Hungary has this:

Following a fall in May, Hungary's manufacturing industry has apparently found its footing again in June. While the PMI plummeted to 51.5 in May from 57.6 in April, the seasonally adjusted indicator rose 0.7 percentage points m/m to 52.2 in June, the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (HALPIM), the publisher of the index, reported on Monday.

Now as they also note an index figure above 50 indicates expansion while a figure below 50 shows contraction in economic activity. So let's look at the graph to see what has been happening.

What we should note here is that since the Jan-March quarter 2005, industrial output has been expanding steadily. In February this year the rate of increase of output accelerated rapidly, then fell back. In May it seems to have touched bottom (since in that month it barely grew at all), and this month the expansion rate has rebounded ever so slightly. Where we go from here at this point is anyones guess, since there is no clear trend, but I would expect the expansion to continue, at least for the time being, since if it didn't, well we would be in a mess, wouldn't we.

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